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Plug-in hybrid cars emit nearly 5x greater global warming emissions than official data show, as per a recent analysis.

Growing Discrepancy Between Official and Real-World Emissions

Data shows that PHEVs emit only one-fifth less CO₂ than conventional gas and diesel vehicles, according to analysis carried out by a non-profit organization. This differs significantly with lab tests, which assumed a 75% decrease in emissions.

Researchers studied data from onboard fuel consumption meters of eight hundred thousand cars sold in Europe between 2021 and 2023. The team discovered that real-world CO₂ emissions from PHEVs in 2023 were nearly five times higher than official figures, increased from 3.5 times in 2021.

“Actual CO2 output are increasing, while official figures are falling,” stated a senior researcher involved in the study. “This gap is growing and creates a significant problem. Consequently, PHEVs emit nearly as much as gasoline vehicles.”

Primary Reasons Driving the Discrepancy

Researchers linked the majority of the gap to overestimates of the “electric driving share” – the percentage of miles driven in battery power compared to overall mileage. They found that only 27% of travel was completed in electric mode, while official assumptions assumed 84%.

Additionally, when running in EV mode, emission amounts were significantly higher than lab estimates. That happened because EV motors were insufficiently powerful sufficient to operate alone, resulting to combustion motors using gasoline for nearly a third of the travel completed in electric mode.

Regulatory and Economic Implications

According to estimates, the lowballing of PHEV CO2 output enabled several major carmaker companies to escape over €5bn in penalties between 2021 and 2023, by falsely easing compliance with European Union average fleet CO₂ standards.

Furthermore, owners of PHEVs could spend about €500 extra annually in operating costs than is assumed under lab tests.

“The strong claims that automakers often promote about their PHEV vehicles are obviously far from the truth,” commented a transport analyst. “Buyers are being misled into believing that by buying a PHEV, they are benefiting the environment and cutting costs. In reality, PHEVs are little improved than regular gas and diesel cars in terms of fuel consumption, CO₂ emissions, and running costs.”

Political Discussion and Industry Lobbying

Plug-in hybrid cars have recently been drawn again into political debates as carmakers have pressed the EU to relax CO₂ standards. A planned prohibition on sales of new internal combustion cars in 2035 has faced heavy lobbying from the automotive sector and opposition from EU countries with significant car industries.

Some senior politicians have proposed PHEVs as a potential “flexibility” option to introduce in the legislation.

An independent energy policy specialist, who was unaffiliated with the study, called the analysis a “highly valuable addition” after a long period in which segments of the automotive industry argued there was too little data to properly evaluate real-world CO2 output.

“These findings show, beyond any doubt, that the gap in official and real-world PHEV energy use and CO₂ emissions is significantly larger than for gasoline or diesel vehicles,” they stated. “All regulatory adjustments concerning PHEVs should be made with utmost care and considering this evidence.”