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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple script. It frequently functions as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest turnaround is handed the award. In practice, it fuels an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or merely the greatest shock.

However the current race is profoundly unique. The group of contenders is unusually strong. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions declining and longtime strugglers improving collectively. Under an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and entertaining season, he's competing with multiple other exceptional coaches.

This is how the ideal ballot could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to spin magic out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost each gamble – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the immense hype he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a typical season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current isn't a normal year!

Where his case comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained success. But Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the off-field aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. But he has pulled everyone and everything together.

After an initial hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the team stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed after that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

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