A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
